Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
